Qld: Just who can lead Qld?

AAP General News (Australia)
02-10-2006
Qld: Just who can lead Qld?

By Nikki Todd, State Political Correspondent

BRISBANE, Feb 9 AAP - For the first time in almost eight years, the prospect of Queensland
without Premier Peter Beattie at the helm is dominating state politics.

As MPs prepare for next week's first sitting of parliament for 2006, the question of
who is up to the state's top job will be uppermost in their minds.

The issue was thrust into neon lights in recent days after Mr Beattie threatened to
quit if he could not turn the corner on the health crisis which has engulfed his government
over the past 12 months.

He has given himself a deadline of seven or eight months - by September or October
- to perform what some say would be a miracle.

The premier has not set any specific benchmarks upon which to base his decision, other
than judging community perception about how he and the health system are travelling.

But if his record-low ratings in the polls fail to improve - a recent poll showed him
holding a mere 33 per cent approval rating - the man who once held the mantle as Australia's
most popular leader could find himself without a job.

With an election due by May next year, Labor backbenchers are nervous.

Despite boasting a huge 17-seat majority in the parliament, Labor has many vulnerable
electorates.

Eleven seats could be lost with a mere five per cent swing.

If last August's byelection result in the eastern Brisbane seat of Chatsworth is anything
to go by - when Liberal Michael Caltabiano achieved a swing of more than 11 per cent to
win - then the ALP stands to lose at least 29 seats at the next state poll.

According to one Labor backbencher, caucus is not as supportive of Mr Beattie as the
premier would have us believe.

Some feel Mr Beattie should stand aside now rather than leave the uncertainties and
controversies about his leadership hanging over them for eight months.

But big questions remain over who could succeed him.

The premier's personal pick, Deputy Premier Anna Bligh, heads the smaller Left faction
in caucus and is not believed to have sufficient support, neither within caucus or outside
in the greater electorate where few know her.

However, there are no stand-out challengers to her ascendancy, with the dominant Right
faction yet to endorse a candidate - although Transport Minister Paul Lucas and Energy
and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Policy Minister John Mickel are clear frontrunners.

But if Labor has problems, the Opposition is fairing little better.

The whiff of victory might remain in the air following the byelection wins in Chatsworth
and Redcliffe last August but the two conservative parties remain at loggerheads.

Despite a two-day retreat on the Sunshine Coast for all 22 National and Liberal MPs
this week, the parties continue to run their own agendas.

On any given day Opposition leader Lawrence Springborg will battle Liberal leader Bob
Quinn for media attention.

Instead of presenting one united front with one clearly identified leader, voters are
confronted with images of both men sometimes singing different tunes.

While Mr Springborg is the coalition's agreed alternative premier, the message remains
fuzzy in the electorate where the Nationals leader struggles to outpoll Mr Beattie despite
the latter's fall from grace.

Mr Springborg, who commands a whopping 75 per cent support in his Southern Downs electorate,
continues to be criticised for his perceived lack of worldly experience having first been
elected to the parliament in 1989 aged just 21.

Neither has the coalition managed to iron out their pre-selection differences, announcing
this week both parties would run candidates in Mudgeeraba, Broadwater, Hervey Bay and
Redlands.

The three-cornered contests could see the coalition forfeit winnable seats, particularly
the first three which all hold majorities of less than five per cent.

The fiasco will certainly give Labor some breathing space, with Mr Beattie seizing
on the development.

"They need another term in opposition to get their act together," the premier said.

"If they can't govern themselves, then they can't govern Queensland."

As the election draws nearer and punters are forced to consider who they want to lead
Queensland at this vital time in the state's rapid development, they are left with little
choice.

AAP nt/sc/jt/de

KEYWORD: POLITICS QLD (AAP NEWS ANALYSIS) (REPEATING)

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